If you are comparing where to buy across Middle Tennessee in 2026, the single most useful number to anchor on is the median sale price by county — because the spread between them is wide. Based on Redfin county data dated between October 2025 and May 2026: Williamson County carried a median sale price of about $975,000 (Oct 2025), while Wilson County ran about $499,000–$510,000, Davidson County (Nashville/Metro) about $470,000 (March 2026), Sumner County about $442,000 (Dec 2025), and Rutherford County about $425,700 (May 2026).
Most market reports cover one county at a time, which makes it hard to see the actual trade-offs. Our team built this piece to put all five core counties on one dated table so you can compare them directly. Below you'll find the median prices we verified at publish (per Redfin), how Williamson and Sumner are built differently, and what named national forecasters (Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and the National Association of REALTORS) are projecting for the rest of 2026 — presented as a range, because forecasts vary and no one can guarantee where prices go next.
Middle Tennessee median home prices by county (2026)
Here is the five-county snapshot, drawn from Redfin's county housing-market pages with the date label each figure carried when we verified it. County medians blend all home types (single-family, condos, townhomes) unless noted, so they sit a little differently than a single-family-only number. We re-check these against the RealTracs MLS before relying on them for a specific home.
- •Williamson County (Franklin, Brentwood, Nolensville, Spring Hill, Thompson's Station) — median sale price about $975,000 (Oct 2025), up roughly 6.5% year over year. Source: Redfin.
- •Wilson County (Mt. Juliet, Lebanon, Watertown) — median sale price about $499,000 over the three months ending April 2026 (up 0.7% YoY) and about $509,900 in March 2026 (up 3.6% YoY). Source: Redfin.
- •Davidson County / Nashville Metro (Nashville, plus the satellite cities) — median sale price about $470,000 (March 2026), up about 1.1% year over year. Source: Redfin.
- •Sumner County (Hendersonville, Gallatin, Goodlettsville, Portland, White House) — median sale price about $442,000 (Dec 2025), up about 6.3% year over year. Source: Redfin.
- •Rutherford County (Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne) — median sale price about $425,700 (May 2026), down about 2.0% year over year. Source: Redfin.
For a regional benchmark, Greater Nashville REALTORS reported a median single-family home price of $499,900 in March 2026 across its nine-county service area — a $10,000 increase year over year. That official MLS figure is single-family-only and covers Davidson, Williamson, Sumner, Wilson, Rutherford, Cheatham, Dickson, Maury and Robertson counties, which is why it lands higher than the all-types Davidson median above.
Williamson and Sumner, read side by side
Williamson County in the south and Sumner County in the north are the two suburban counties buyers leaving Davidson most often weigh. Redfin put the Williamson median around $975,000 (Oct 2025) and the Sumner median around $442,000 (Dec 2025). Both offer large new-construction communities, lakes and rivers nearby, and a commute into central Nashville in the 25–45 minute range depending on where you land and when you drive.
Supply, land cost and the housing stock shape both figures. Our team works both counties, and we'll run the math with you on the specific homes you're weighing in either one.
What the county choice means for your budget
The same pre-approval buys a different mix of home size, age and commute in each county, so compare specific homes rather than headlines. The right county is the one that fits your budget, commute, and the home features you actually want. We're happy to run those numbers with you.
615-265-1000How to read a median price (so it actually helps you)
A countywide median is a starting point, not a quote. A few things change the picture fast:
- •All-types vs single-family. County pages often blend condos and townhomes into the median, which pulls it down versus a single-family-only number like the Greater Nashville REALTORS $499,900.
- •Days on market. We no longer set county days-on-market figures side by side: each one blends new-construction presales the MLS records at 0 days with resales, which can put two counties in the wrong order. For a specific home, we pull the closed comparables instead.
- •Sub-market spread. Within any county, a waterfront home in Hendersonville, a downtown Franklin historic property, and a new build in Spring Hill are three different markets. The county median averages across all of them.
City-level price points inside each county
Williamson County
Franklin and Brentwood anchor the county, with Nolensville, Thompson's Station and the Williamson side of Spring Hill offering large new-construction inventory. If you want the detail, see our city guides for Franklin, Brentwood, Nolensville and Spring Hill.
Sumner County
Hendersonville and Gallatin lead in volume, with Goodlettsville, White House and Portland adding active new-construction. Old Hickory Lake frontage is a defining feature here. Our Hendersonville and Gallatin guides go deeper on subdivisions and lake access.
Rutherford County
Murfreesboro is the population center, with Smyrna and La Vergne alongside it. New construction is active across the county.
Wilson County
Mt. Juliet sits right against Davidson's eastern edge — popular with buyers who want a short Nashville commute — while Lebanon has more rural land at its edges. The spread between Mt. Juliet and rural Wilson is wide.
Davidson County (Nashville)
Davidson holds the urban core and the widest range of any county here — from condos and townhomes downtown to single-family neighborhoods across Metro. An all-types county median understates what a detached single-family home in many neighborhoods runs, which is exactly why neighborhood-level data and specific comparables matter so much in the city.
What named forecasters expect for the rest of 2026
We don't make price predictions in our own voice — no one can guarantee where the market goes. But it's fair to share what the major national forecasters published for 2026, and these views genuinely vary, which itself is the point. For a current rate anchor: Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed at 6.49% the week of June 25, 2026, holding in the mid-6% range through the month.
- •Home prices: Fannie Mae projected national home-price growth of about 3.2% for 2026; the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) projected national prices roughly flat — slowing to about 1% and dipping slightly negative late in the year; and the National Association of REALTORS (NAR) projected around 4%. That's a wide range — from a slight decline to mid-single-digit growth.
- •Mortgage rates: Fannie Mae (May 2026 forecast) projected the 30-year fixed averaging around 6.3% across 2026; the MBA projected rates holding in roughly a 6.0%–6.5% range; NAR projected rates averaging around 6.0% in 2026.
- •Local read: Greater Nashville REALTORS has described 2026 as a shift toward balance — more inventory and steadier pricing rather than the rapid run-ups of prior years.
The honest takeaway: credible experts disagree, national numbers won't map perfectly onto any one Middle Tennessee county, and the future can't be guaranteed. What we can do is read the current factors — dated medians, inventory, days on market, and rate quotes you actually qualify for — and help you make a clear-eyed decision for the home you're looking at right now.
Frequently asked questions
What are Middle Tennessee's county medians in 2026?
Per Redfin, Rutherford County's median was about $425,700 in May 2026 and Sumner County's about $442,000 in December 2025. Exact figures shift month to month, so we re-verify against the RealTracs MLS before pricing a specific home.
What is behind Williamson County's median?
Williamson's median ran near $975,000 in October 2025 (Redfin) on the strength of strong demand in Franklin and Brentwood, and limited land for new supply in its established corridors.
Is the median price for single-family homes or all home types?
It depends on the source. Redfin's county medians generally blend all home types, which is why Davidson's all-types median (~$470,000) reads lower than the Greater Nashville REALTORS single-family-only median ($499,900 in March 2026). When you're comparing, make sure you're comparing the same measure — we'll always tell you which one we're quoting.
Will home prices in Middle Tennessee go up or down in 2026?
We can't predict that, and we won't. National forecasters published a range for 2026 — from roughly flat or a slight decline (MBA) to mid-single-digit growth (NAR, ~4%; Fannie Mae, ~3.2%) — and they openly disagree. Locally, Greater Nashville REALTORS has described the market as shifting toward more balance with rising inventory. The smartest move is to look at current, dated data for the specific county and home you want.
Compare counties with a local team — call 615-265-1000
Trying to decide between Williamson, Sumner, Rutherford, Wilson or Davidson? Our team will pull current MLS numbers for the exact areas you're weighing, run your budget against real comparable sales, and help you compare the options — buyer representation is little or no cost to you; how it is paid is settled per offer, in writing. Call The Will Johnson Team at 615-265-1000 to talk it through.
615-265-1000